A new model that predicts the solar cycles more accurately than ever before has suggested that solar magnectic
activity will drop by 60 percent between 2030 and 2014, which means in just 15 yards time, Earth could sink into
what researchers are calling a mini ice age.
Such low solar activity has not been since the last mini ice age, called the Maunder Minimum, which plunged the
northern hemisphere in particular into a series of bitterly cold winds between 1645 and 1715.
The prediction is based on what's known as the Sun's '11- year heartbeat.'
The Sun's magnectic activity is not the same each year in year out, it fluctuates over a cycle that lasts between
10 and 12 years.
Ever since this was discovered 172 years ago, scientists have struggled to predict what each cycle will look like.
But just last week at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, mathematics professor Valentina Zharkova from
Northumberland University in the UK has presented a new model that we can forecast what these solar cycles will
look like based on the dynamo effects at play in two layers of the Sun, Zharkova says she can predict their influences
with an accuracy of 97 percent.
What exactly are these so called dynamo effects? They're part of a geophysical theory that explains how the motion
of aearth's outer core moves conducting material, such as liquid iron, across a weak magnectic field to create an
electric current. This electric current also interacts with the fluid motion below the surface of Earth to create two
magnectic fields along the axis of its rotation.
When Zharkova's model applied this theory, it drew its predictions assuming that there are dynamo effects in two
subterranean layers- one deep down in the convection zone, and another up neat the surface, each fluctuating
between the northern and Southern Hemispheres.
Zharkova explained her findings at the conference:
"We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior.
They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are
offset in time. Combining both waves together and comparing to real date for the current solar cycle, we found
that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent."
Looking at these magnectic wave patterns, the model predicted that there would be few sunspots over the world
over the next two 11- year heartbeats - called Cylce 25, which peaks in 2022, and Cylce 26, which runs from 2030
to 2040.
"In Cylce 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other - peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of
the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other out. We predict that this will
lead to the properties of a "Maunder minimum," said Zharkova.
During the original Maunder Minimum, the entire River Thames froze over in England, so it's time to get the skate out.
BBC Crew July 2015